The Pentagon and Chinese Military Power

By Rachel Burger|Opinion|2 Comments

China's growing military is dangerous, warns the Pentagon.

Background

This past week, the Pentagon issued an 83-page public report on China’s military expansion. In the report, the Pentagon acknowledged that China had closed key technological gaps that were previously hindering its military’s expansion.

While speaking at the Pentagon, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia Michael Schiffer articulated the core of the report:

“The pace and scope of China’s sustained military investment have allowed China to pursue capabilities we believe are potentially destabilizing to regional military balances, increase the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation and may contribute to regional tensions and anxieties. Such capabilities could increase Beijing’s options to use military force to gain diplomatic advantage, advance its interests or resolve military disputes in its favor.” (CNN)

Anxiety about China’s growing military power were focused around China’s test-flights of its new J20 stealth aircraft, which is a refurbished Soviet model (BBC). According to the report, the J20 will achieve ”effective operational capability prior to 2018.”

The Chinese media was quick to dismiss the Pentagon as a “Cock and Bull Report” (the Chinese government will likely continue ignoring the report). “Xinhua called the Pentagon’s conclusions ‘much ado about nothing,’ and said Chinese people thought it “baffling” that the U.S. could criticize China when its own military spending was 40 percent of the world’s total in 2010″ (Reuters). Both China and the US recognize that US trades with Taiwan have fueled Chinese military spending.

See the full report here (.pdf).

Opinion

I doubt that anyone who reads this report or who has kept tabs on China over the past decade believes that Chinese military growth will stagnate within the next nine years. What the report is trying to articulate (in its politico-jargon), is that China will become a real national security threat in the next decade. I think that is true, not just for the States, but for any country in the South China Sea (indeed: more so than now).

While watching China buildup its arms, America can do little. It’s a difficult situation; China has the sovereignty to strengthen its military power, but freedom to expand is quickly becoming an arms race. Should technological military advantages over the Chinese be the US’s main, and perhaps only, advantage in military power, the US may fall further into the deficit with increased military spending just to keep up. The world is increasingly becoming bipolar once again.

I don’t believe that China’s strength is merely based in its tangible military though. We have recently seen that China has been increasing their long-denied cyber-warfare capabilities. The next war, I predict, will largely be fought in cyber-space. The Pentagon’s report declares,

In 2010, numerous computer systems around the world, including those owned by the U.S. Government, were the target of intrusions, some of which appear to have originated within the PRC. These intrusions were focused on exfiltrating information. Although this alone is a serious concern, the accesses and skills required for these intrusions are similar to those necessary to conduct computer network attacks. (5)

This, I argue, is just as concerning as the physical arms buildup in our modern cyber world, if not even more.

However.

While the Chinese military expansion is alarming, I also strongly doubt that we will be at open war with each other at any time soon given the strength of our economic ties. While neo-imperialism is driving both countries, I would be shocked to see anything more than a Cold standoff and subtle cyber warfare over the next decade.